{"id":16073,"date":"2025-04-07T11:15:36","date_gmt":"2025-04-07T10:15:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/?p=16073"},"modified":"2025-04-22T12:36:18","modified_gmt":"2025-04-22T11:36:18","slug":"fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/","title":{"rendered":"Fragile Futures: Current United Nations Data is Hiding the True Scale of Child Mortality"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-cover alignfull is-light curved-bottom\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-cover__background has-background-dim-0 has-background-dim\" style=\"background-color:#d4950c\"><\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1140\" height=\"400\" class=\"wp-block-cover__image-background wp-image-15878\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/New-email-banners-26.png\" style=\"object-position:54% 41%\" data-object-fit=\"cover\" data-object-position=\"54% 41%\" srcset=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/New-email-banners-26.png 1140w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/New-email-banners-26-300x105.png 300w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/New-email-banners-26-1024x359.png 1024w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/New-email-banners-26-768x269.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1140px) 100vw, 1140px\" \/><div class=\"wp-block-cover__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-cover-is-layout-flow\"><h1 class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-post-title\">Fragile Futures: Current United Nations Data is Hiding the True Scale of Child Mortality<\/h1><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-post-date\"><time datetime=\"2025-04-07T11:15:36+01:00\">7 April 2025<\/time><\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"lead\">New evidence from Population Matters\u2019 Fragile Futures report reveals a stark truth: child mortality this century will be higher than current projections suggest. This article examines why the current United Nations&#8217; projections are wrong, how it\u2019s impacting the lives of children and what must urgently be done.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cThe health and wellbeing of children should be one of society\u2019s highest priorities, not just for children today, but also for children of the future.\u201d<\/p>\n<cite><a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/fragile-futures\/\">Fragile Futures<\/a> report<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>For decades, the United Nations\u2019 projections have been considered the gold standard for tracking global health trends such as infant and under-five mortality rates.*\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Charities, policymakers and governments rely on these figures to prioritise resources that shape and deliver&nbsp;health policies for children. Data accuracy is essential to ensure cost-effective solutions reach communities that need them most, particularly in regions that are at high risk of infant mortality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1707\" src=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/anna-yablonskaya-Q6IiOUlFY5c-unsplash-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Air pollution over a city\" class=\"wp-image-16077\" srcset=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/anna-yablonskaya-Q6IiOUlFY5c-unsplash-scaled.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/anna-yablonskaya-Q6IiOUlFY5c-unsplash-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/anna-yablonskaya-Q6IiOUlFY5c-unsplash-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/anna-yablonskaya-Q6IiOUlFY5c-unsplash-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/anna-yablonskaya-Q6IiOUlFY5c-unsplash-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/anna-yablonskaya-Q6IiOUlFY5c-unsplash-2048x1365.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The United Nations predicts that under-five mortality rates will keep falling throughout this century. But those projections rely on past trends. The climate and environment are in rapid decline \u2013 our planet is getting hotter, and air pollution is rising. The United Nations prediction model fails to take this into account.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Why the United Nations\u2019 Projections Are Flawed<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/fragile-futures\/\"><em>Fragile Futures<\/em> report<\/a> reveals a worrying gap in the United Nations\u2019 infant mortality projections: they overlook two major threats to children\u2019s health today.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>The Increasing Impacts of Climate Change:<\/strong> The United Nations\u2019 modelling does not include the rising risks posed by extreme heat, air pollution, droughts, and other accelerating climate-driven crises. These environmental changes threaten decades of progress and leave millions of children vulnerable.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"2\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Population Dynamics:<\/strong> The projections fail to account for the reality of global demographics. This century, most children will be born in the most climate-vulnerable regions, principally Sub-Saharan Africa and South &amp; Central Asia. These regions also have the fewest resources to combat climate-related health threats.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1709\" src=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/daniil-silantev-oyNDyNBr1QM-unsplash-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Mother and son\" class=\"wp-image-16078\" srcset=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/daniil-silantev-oyNDyNBr1QM-unsplash-scaled.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/daniil-silantev-oyNDyNBr1QM-unsplash-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/daniil-silantev-oyNDyNBr1QM-unsplash-1024x684.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/daniil-silantev-oyNDyNBr1QM-unsplash-768x513.jpg 768w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/daniil-silantev-oyNDyNBr1QM-unsplash-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/daniil-silantev-oyNDyNBr1QM-unsplash-2048x1367.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Together, these blind spots paint an alarmingly incomplete picture. If we continue on this path\u2014relying on outdated assumptions\u2014we risk failing millions of children and their families.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security, and children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. Given this knowledge, failure to take prompt, substantive action would be an act of injustice to all children.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n<cite>Global Climate Change and Children\u2019s Health \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aap.org\/en\/patient-care\/climate-change\/global-climate-change-and-childrens-health-aap-recommendations\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">American Academy of Pediatrics<\/a>&nbsp;<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Climate Crisis is a Child Health Crisis<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The impacts of climate change are being felt all over the world. Previously farmable land is turning into arid, inhospitable terrain, leading to crop losses and water shortages. Droughts, one of the <a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2024\/06\/dried-up-futures-drought-and-desertification\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">deadliest natural disasters<\/a>, are becoming commonplace. Undernourishment continues to rise worldwide, affecting an estimated <a href=\"https:\/\/digitallibrary.un.org\/record\/3984389?v=pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">828 million people (2022)<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1709\" src=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/ivars-krutainis-jTJ9-4ESzU4-unsplash-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Drought and desertification\" class=\"wp-image-15770\" srcset=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/ivars-krutainis-jTJ9-4ESzU4-unsplash-scaled.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/ivars-krutainis-jTJ9-4ESzU4-unsplash-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/ivars-krutainis-jTJ9-4ESzU4-unsplash-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/ivars-krutainis-jTJ9-4ESzU4-unsplash-768x513.jpg 768w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/ivars-krutainis-jTJ9-4ESzU4-unsplash-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/ivars-krutainis-jTJ9-4ESzU4-unsplash-2048x1367.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>What\u2019s less well known is that extreme temperatures are already linked to a 60% increased risk of premature births, a major driver of infant mortality. As Associate Professor at Africa International University Adelaide Lusambili <a href=\"https:\/\/www.womenshealthmag.com\/uk\/health\/a62733126\/climate-crisis-miscarriage\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">said last year<\/a>:&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cMothers and newborns deserve protection \u2013 climate solutions must include their voices.&#8221;<\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>The United Nations\u2019 child-mortality projections optimistically assume that past progress will continue. But if catastrophic <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/articles\/cz7wvpyewxlo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">flooding in Spain<\/a>, multi-year <a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/emergencies\/situations\/drought-food-insecurity-greater-horn-of-africa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">droughts in the Horn of Africa<\/a>, and rampant <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/US\/los-angeles-wildfires-timeline-palisades-eaton\/story?id=117643473\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Californian wildfires<\/a> in January have taught us anything, it\u2019s that climate change is reshaping the entire world and putting children\u2019s lives at risk.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Infant Mortality Rates Are Already Climbing<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Contrary to official predictions, recent data shows infant mortality is already increasing in both high- and low-income countries, including the United States, France, India, Madagascar, Cambodia, Nepal and the Philippines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Fragile Futures report highlights a stark reality: as the impacts of climate change intensify, the number of vulnerable children affected will rise dramatically.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As the report warns,<em> \u201cThe number of children adversely affected by climate change will increase not only because there will be more children, but because of the increasing number of vulnerable children.\u201d<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/fragile%20futures%20report\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks to decades of progress, more children than ever are surviving their first years. But climate change threatens to undo those hard-won gains.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>A Wake-Up Call<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This week, the Population Matters team will be bringing this urgent evidence to the 58th Conference on Population and Development (CPD58) in New York. There, we will present our data, challenge current United Nations\u2019 projections and call for immediate action -bringing together global experts, advocates and decision-makers to drive this vital conversation forward.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1178\" height=\"530\" src=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UN-HQ-New-York.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4114\" srcset=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UN-HQ-New-York.jpg 1178w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UN-HQ-New-York-300x135.jpg 300w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UN-HQ-New-York-1024x461.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UN-HQ-New-York-768x346.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1178px) 100vw, 1178px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The United Nations&#8217; building in New York<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The world cannot afford to base life-saving policies on flawed information. Protecting children\u2019s health starts with better data and stronger investment in health systems and health services needed by newborns, infants, children and women &#8211;&nbsp; sexual and reproductive healthcare \u2013 for the sake of millions of women and children worldwide.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Join us online this Tuesday, 8 April, for our <a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/civicrm\/event\/register\/?reset=1&amp;id=40\"><strong><em>Fragile Futures<\/em> Roundtable<\/strong><\/a> \u2014 a vital conversation about shaping policies that protect children&#8217;s health in a changing world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>_________________________________________________&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>* The under-five mortality rate refers to\u202fthe probability a newborn would die before reaching five years of age, expressed per 1,000 live births. Infant mortality is a related term that refers to the probability a newborn would die before reaching their first birthday.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-popmat-share\"><a class=\"fb-share\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpopulationmatters.org%2Fnews%2F2025%2F04%2Ffragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality%2F\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><div><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 448 512\"><path d=\"M400 32H48A48 48 0 0 0 0 80v352a48 48 0 0 0 48 48h137.25V327.69h-63V256h63v-54.64c0-62.15 37-96.48 93.67-96.48 27.14 0 55.52 4.84 55.52 4.84v61h-31.27c-30.81 0-40.42 19.12-40.42 38.73V256h68.78l-11 71.69h-57.78V480H400a48 48 0 0 0 48-48V80a48 48 0 0 0-48-48z\"><\/path><\/svg> Share<\/div><\/a><a class=\"tw-share\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/share?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpopulationmatters.org%2Fnews%2F2025%2F04%2Ffragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality%2F&amp;text=Fragile%20Futures%3A%20Current%20United%20Nations%20Data%20is%20Hiding%20the%20True%20Scale%20of%20Child%20Mortality\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><div><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\"><path d=\"M459.37 151.716c.325 4.548.325 9.097.325 13.645 0 138.72-105.583 298.558-298.558 298.558-59.452 0-114.68-17.219-161.137-47.106 8.447.974 16.568 1.299 25.34 1.299 49.055 0 94.213-16.568 130.274-44.832-46.132-.975-84.792-31.188-98.112-72.772 6.498.974 12.995 1.624 19.818 1.624 9.421 0 18.843-1.3 27.614-3.573-48.081-9.747-84.143-51.98-84.143-102.985v-1.299c13.969 7.797 30.214 12.67 47.431 13.319-28.264-18.843-46.781-51.005-46.781-87.391 0-19.492 5.197-37.36 14.294-52.954 51.655 63.675 129.3 105.258 216.365 109.807-1.624-7.797-2.599-15.918-2.599-24.04 0-57.828 46.782-104.934 104.934-104.934 30.213 0 57.502 12.67 76.67 33.137 23.715-4.548 46.456-13.32 66.599-25.34-7.798 24.366-24.366 44.833-46.132 57.827 21.117-2.273 41.584-8.122 60.426-16.243-14.292 20.791-32.161 39.308-52.628 54.253z\"><\/path><\/svg> Tweet<\/div><\/a><a class=\"li-share\" href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/shareArticle?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpopulationmatters.org%2Fnews%2F2025%2F04%2Ffragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality%2F&amp;text=Fragile%20Futures%3A%20Current%20United%20Nations%20Data%20is%20Hiding%20the%20True%20Scale%20of%20Child%20Mortality\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><div><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 448 512\"><path d=\"M416 32H31.9C14.3 32 0 46.5 0 64.3v383.4C0 465.5 14.3 480 31.9 480H416c17.6 0 32-14.5 32-32.3V64.3c0-17.8-14.4-32.3-32-32.3zM135.4 416H69V202.2h66.5V416zm-33.2-243c-21.3 0-38.5-17.3-38.5-38.5S80.9 96 102.2 96c21.2 0 38.5 17.3 38.5 38.5 0 21.3-17.2 38.5-38.5 38.5zm282.1 243h-66.4V312c0-24.8-.5-56.7-34.5-56.7-34.6 0-39.9 27-39.9 54.9V416h-66.4V202.2h63.7v29.2h.9c8.9-16.8 30.6-34.5 62.9-34.5 67.2 0 79.7 44.3 79.7 101.9V416z\"><\/path><\/svg> Post<\/div><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignfull has-light-blue-background-color has-background is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Related content<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-popmat-grid grid grid-3\">\n\t\t<div class=\"wp-block-popmat-post-teaser\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/02\/all-populations-matter-our-new-five-year-vision\/\">\n\t\t\t\t<h3>All Populations Matter: Our new five-year vision<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"513\" src=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Photo-by-Lucas-van-Oort-on-Unsplash-768x513.jpg\" class=\"wp-image-15628\" srcset=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Photo-by-Lucas-van-Oort-on-Unsplash-768x513.jpg 768w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Photo-by-Lucas-van-Oort-on-Unsplash-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Photo-by-Lucas-van-Oort-on-Unsplash-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Photo-by-Lucas-van-Oort-on-Unsplash-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Photo-by-Lucas-van-Oort-on-Unsplash-2048x1367.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/img>\n\t\t\t\t<p>Today, we launch our new strategy &#8211; a bold and ambitious vision for the next five years of Population Matters. Designed to drive real change for both people and the planet, it sets out an exciting path forward. Our Chief Executive, Amy Jankiewicz, explains more.  <\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"wp-block-popmat-post-teaser\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/resources\/fragile-futures\/\">\n\t\t\t\t<h3>Fragile Futures Report<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"269\" src=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/New-email-banners-26-768x269.png\" class=\"wp-image-15878\" srcset=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/New-email-banners-26-768x269.png 768w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/New-email-banners-26-300x105.png 300w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/New-email-banners-26-1024x359.png 1024w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/New-email-banners-26.png 1140w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/img>\n\t\t\t\t<p>Fragile Futures\u00a0explores how population pressure and climate change threaten child health worldwide. Despite progress in reducing infant mortality, rising environmental and resource challenges risk reversing gains. This report highlights urgent&#8230;<\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"wp-block-popmat-post-teaser\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2024\/06\/dried-up-futures-drought-and-desertification\/\">\n\t\t\t\t<h3>Dried up Futures: Drought and Desertification<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"256\" src=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/tucker-tangeman-9aAr_EFqYdc-unsplash-2-768x256.jpg\" class=\"wp-image-13764\" srcset=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/tucker-tangeman-9aAr_EFqYdc-unsplash-2-768x256.jpg 768w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/tucker-tangeman-9aAr_EFqYdc-unsplash-2-300x100.jpg 300w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/tucker-tangeman-9aAr_EFqYdc-unsplash-2-1024x341.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/tucker-tangeman-9aAr_EFqYdc-unsplash-2-1536x512.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/tucker-tangeman-9aAr_EFqYdc-unsplash-2-2048x682.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/img>\n\t\t\t\t<p>Drought and desertification are the worst environmental crises facing the world today. Our new report Dried Up Futures examines how these interconnected disasters are driven by population growth, and the urgent need to act now to save our future.<\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"New evidence from Population Matters\u2019 Fragile Futures report reveals a stark truth: child mortality this century will be higher than current projections suggest. This is the first of three articles examining why the current United Nations\u2019 projections are wrong, how it\u2019s impacting the lives of children and what must urgently be done.","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":4114,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26,28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16073","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","category-population-matters-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Current UN Data is Hiding the True Scale of Child Mortality - Population Matters<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"New evidence reveals flaws in UN projections on child mortality\u2014climate change and population trends are being dangerously overlooked.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Current UN Data is Hiding the True Scale of Child Mortality - Population Matters\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"New evidence reveals flaws in UN projections on child mortality\u2014climate change and population trends are being dangerously overlooked.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Population Matters\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/PopulationMatters\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-04-07T10:15:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-04-22T11:36:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UN-HQ-New-York.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1178\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"530\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ben Stallworthy\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@PopnMatters\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@PopnMatters\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Ben Stallworthy\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Ben Stallworthy\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/#\/schema\/person\/e22a727208fdfa4e4352c1697a0fb0cc\"},\"headline\":\"Fragile Futures: Current United Nations Data is Hiding the True Scale of Child Mortality\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-04-07T10:15:36+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-04-22T11:36:18+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/\"},\"wordCount\":886,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UN-HQ-New-York.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Blog\",\"Population matters news\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/\",\"name\":\"Current UN Data is Hiding the True Scale of Child Mortality - Population Matters\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UN-HQ-New-York.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-04-07T10:15:36+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-04-22T11:36:18+00:00\",\"description\":\"New evidence reveals flaws in UN projections on child mortality\u2014climate change and population trends are being dangerously overlooked.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UN-HQ-New-York.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UN-HQ-New-York.jpg\",\"width\":1178,\"height\":530,\"caption\":\"United Nations in New York\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Fragile Futures: Current United Nations Data is Hiding the True Scale of Child Mortality\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/\",\"name\":\"Population Matters\",\"description\":\"Population Matters is a UK-based charity which campaigns to achieve a sustainable human population, to protect the natural world and improve people\u2019s lives.&quot;\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Population Matters\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/PM-logo.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/PM-logo.png\",\"width\":918,\"height\":646,\"caption\":\"Population Matters\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/PopulationMatters\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/PopnMatters\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/PopnMatters\/\",\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/PopulationMatters\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/#\/schema\/person\/e22a727208fdfa4e4352c1697a0fb0cc\",\"name\":\"Ben Stallworthy\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/341669587fe605b7c04c316593f7a06673fe630632d34e10f651d1eebe4197f4?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/341669587fe605b7c04c316593f7a06673fe630632d34e10f651d1eebe4197f4?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/341669587fe605b7c04c316593f7a06673fe630632d34e10f651d1eebe4197f4?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Ben Stallworthy\"}}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Current UN Data is Hiding the True Scale of Child Mortality - Population Matters","description":"New evidence reveals flaws in UN projections on child mortality\u2014climate change and population trends are being dangerously overlooked.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"Current UN Data is Hiding the True Scale of Child Mortality - Population Matters","og_description":"New evidence reveals flaws in UN projections on child mortality\u2014climate change and population trends are being dangerously overlooked.","og_url":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/","og_site_name":"Population Matters","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/PopulationMatters","article_published_time":"2025-04-07T10:15:36+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-04-22T11:36:18+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1178,"height":530,"url":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UN-HQ-New-York.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Ben Stallworthy","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@PopnMatters","twitter_site":"@PopnMatters","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Ben Stallworthy","Estimated reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/"},"author":{"name":"Ben Stallworthy","@id":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/#\/schema\/person\/e22a727208fdfa4e4352c1697a0fb0cc"},"headline":"Fragile Futures: Current United Nations Data is Hiding the True Scale of Child Mortality","datePublished":"2025-04-07T10:15:36+00:00","dateModified":"2025-04-22T11:36:18+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/"},"wordCount":886,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UN-HQ-New-York.jpg","articleSection":["Blog","Population matters news"],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/","url":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/","name":"Current UN Data is Hiding the True Scale of Child Mortality - Population Matters","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UN-HQ-New-York.jpg","datePublished":"2025-04-07T10:15:36+00:00","dateModified":"2025-04-22T11:36:18+00:00","description":"New evidence reveals flaws in UN projections on child mortality\u2014climate change and population trends are being dangerously overlooked.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UN-HQ-New-York.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UN-HQ-New-York.jpg","width":1178,"height":530,"caption":"United Nations in New York"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/04\/fragile-futures-current-united-nations-data-is-hiding-the-true-scale-of-child-mortality\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Fragile Futures: Current United Nations Data is Hiding the True Scale of Child Mortality"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/#website","url":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/","name":"Population Matters","description":"Population Matters is a UK-based charity which campaigns to achieve a sustainable human population, to protect the natural world and improve people\u2019s lives.&quot;","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/#organization","name":"Population Matters","url":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/PM-logo.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/PM-logo.png","width":918,"height":646,"caption":"Population Matters"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/PopulationMatters","https:\/\/x.com\/PopnMatters","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/PopnMatters\/","https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/PopulationMatters"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/#\/schema\/person\/e22a727208fdfa4e4352c1697a0fb0cc","name":"Ben Stallworthy","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/341669587fe605b7c04c316593f7a06673fe630632d34e10f651d1eebe4197f4?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/341669587fe605b7c04c316593f7a06673fe630632d34e10f651d1eebe4197f4?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/341669587fe605b7c04c316593f7a06673fe630632d34e10f651d1eebe4197f4?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Ben Stallworthy"}}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16073","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16073"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16073\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16210,"href":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16073\/revisions\/16210"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4114"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16073"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16073"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16073"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}