{"id":15700,"date":"2025-02-25T16:08:19","date_gmt":"2025-02-25T16:08:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/?page_id=15700"},"modified":"2025-04-07T15:31:18","modified_gmt":"2025-04-07T14:31:18","slug":"fragile-futures","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/fragile-futures\/","title":{"rendered":"Fragile Futures"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-cover alignfull is-light curved-bottom\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-cover__background has-background-dim-0 has-background-dim\" style=\"background-color:#FFF\"><\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1140\" height=\"400\" class=\"wp-block-cover__image-background wp-image-15878\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/New-email-banners-26.png\" style=\"object-position:47% 28%\" data-object-fit=\"cover\" data-object-position=\"47% 28%\" srcset=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/New-email-banners-26.png 1140w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/New-email-banners-26-300x105.png 300w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/New-email-banners-26-1024x359.png 1024w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/New-email-banners-26-768x269.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1140px) 100vw, 1140px\" \/><div class=\"wp-block-cover__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-cover-is-layout-flow\"><h1 class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-post-title\">Fragile Futures<\/h1><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"lead\">How underestimating the risks of<br>population pressure endangers the health<br>and lives of current and future children<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">KEY MESSAGES<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Fragile Futures report reveals that the <strong>current projections on infant mortality<\/strong> this century are <strong>serious underestimates<\/strong> because they fail to account for the <strong>impact of climate change and population dynamics.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>To achieve accurate projections, with the aim of reducing infant mortality, governments and decision-makers must invest in evidence-based research to better understand the impact of climate change and population interlinkages.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Accurate evidence-based projections will enable governments and decision-makers to <strong>deliver cost-effective solutions<\/strong>, particularly for communities living in high-risk regions for infant mortality. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">be part of the solution <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83c\udf0d Join us for our Fragile Futures Roundtable &#8211; a vital discussion to help shape policies that protect child health worldwide. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Speakers:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/our-team\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Josh Hill &#8211; Chief Research and Operations Officer, <strong>Population Matters<\/strong><\/a>, UK<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/research-repository.uwa.edu.au\/en\/persons\/peter-le-souef\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Professor Peter Le Sou\u00ebf &#8211; Professor of Paediatrics, <\/a><strong>University of Western Australia<\/strong>, Australia<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/profile\/Melinda-Judge\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Dr. Melinda Judge \u2013 Researcher, <\/a><strong>KIDS Institute<\/strong>, Australia<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/pfpi.org\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Dr. Joan Castro \u2013 Executive Vice President, <strong>PFPI<\/strong><\/a>, Philippines<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/dandelionafrica.org\/our-team\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Wendo Aszed \u2013 Executive Director, <strong>Dandelion Africa<\/strong><\/a>, Kenya<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udce2Register now <a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/civicrm\/event\/register\/?reset=1&amp;id=40\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>If you are attending CPD58 this week and are able to attend in person, please email <a href=\"mailto:madeleine.hewitt@populationmatters.org\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">madeleine.hewitt@populationmatters.org<\/a>. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">This event is hosted by Population Matters in partnership with: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thekids.org.au\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">KIDS Research <\/a>| <a href=\"https:\/\/pfpi.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PFPI <\/a>| <a href=\"https:\/\/dandelionafrica.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Dandelion Africa<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">read and download the FULL report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file aligncenter\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Fragile-Futures-Report_Digital-PDF_2025-1.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"PDF embed\"><\/object><a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Fragile-Futures-Report_Digital-PDF_2025-1.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download>Download<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">faq<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>Q: What are the key findings of the Fragile Futures report?&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/summary>\n<p>The <em>Fragile Futures <\/em>report reveals that the current United Nations\u2019 projections: that infant mortality rates will continue to decline this century are inaccurate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recent evidence suggests that <a href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/37609306\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">infant mortality is already increasing<\/a> in several different countries: the United States, France, India, Madagascar, Cambodia, Nepal, and the Philippines. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The evidence in the &nbsp;<em>Fragile Futures <\/em>report reveals that climate change and population dynamics will cause a deterioration in the health and wellbeing of all children, disproportionately impacting children in low to middle-income countries.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>Q: What are &#8220;infant mortality rates&#8221; and what are &#8220;population dynamics&#8221;?&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/summary>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/data\/gho\/indicator-metadata-registry\/imr-details\/1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Infant mortality rate<\/a> is the probability of a child born in a specific year or period dying before reaching the age of one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/topics\/social-sciences\/population-dynamics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Population dynamics<\/a> refers to the changes in population size and distribution over time.&nbsp;In the context of children\u2019s health, population dynamics shape resource availability, living conditions, and exposure to risks such as climate change, disease, and food insecurity.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>Q.&nbsp; UN projections state that infant mortality rates will continue to decline \u2013 why is this position incorrect?&nbsp;<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/summary>\n<p>United Nations\u2019 projections on infant mortality rates are based on estimates that trends of past demographic data will continue. The <a href=\"https:\/\/data.un.org\/Data.aspx?d=PopDiv&amp;f=variableID%3A77.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">United Nation\u2019s data<\/a> does not account for the effects of climate change or population dynamics.&nbsp;The United Nations methodology for its infant mortality projections is to take its <a href=\"https:\/\/population.un.org\/wpp\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">own <em>Medium <\/em>fertility variant for population growth<\/a> and fit a smoothed line to previous data on infant mortality for each country, extrapolated to 2100. The <em>Fragile Futures <\/em>report reveals new evidence that demonstrates infant mortality rates will be higher than currently predicted and children\u2019s overall health will decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Current population dynamics reveal that the majority of the world\u2019s children will be born in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg2\/figures\/chapter-8\/figure-8-006\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">most climate-vulnerable regions<\/a>. This includes Sub-Saharan Africa, which <a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.worldbank.org\/en\/opendata\/new-world-bank-group-country-classifications-income-level-fy24\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">contains 22 of the world\u2019s poorest countries<\/a>, experiencing <a href=\"https:\/\/data.un.org\/Data.aspx?d=PopDiv&amp;f=variableID%3A77.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the world\u2019s highest fertility rates<\/a>, with the fewest resources to adapt or shield increasing numbers of children from a deteriorating climate. Exposure to hotter temperatures is linked to several factors that can increase infant mortality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The evidence in the <em>Fragile Futures<\/em> report also identifies that high population density, both within households and in rapidly urbanizing cities, increases exposure to <a href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/24702762\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">infectious diseases<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0166046220302817\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">polluted air<\/a>, which will contribute to higher infant mortality and cause children\u2019s overall health to decline.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>Q. What effects will climate change have on infant mortality rates?<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/summary>\n<p>Climate change will have a myriad of effects on children\u2019s health from the short to the long-term \u2013 rising temperatures are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0048969724010830?via%3Dihub\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">linked to a 60% increase in preterm births<\/a>, a major contributor to higher rates of infant mortality.&nbsp;The effects of a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0048969724010830?via%3Dihub\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">preterm birth can result in long-term health problems<\/a> that can shape a child\u2019s entire life, causing delayed development and stunted growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The risk of preterm birth is already higher in low- and middle-income countries, Sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia accounted for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/pdfs\/journals\/lancet\/PIIS0140-6736(23)00878-4.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">65% of all preterm births globally<\/a> in 2020.&nbsp;More frequent and severe heatwaves in these regions will increase the already high burden of preterm births, putting both women and children\u2019s health at risk.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Climate change also causes more air pollution exposure, <a href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/31806712\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">increasing cases of asthma, eczema, and allergies in young children.<\/a> In Africa alone, air pollution was linked to <a href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/29950722\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">449,000 additional infant deaths in 2015<\/a>, underscoring the growing climate health crisis facing the world\u2019s most vulnerable populations.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>Q. How do population dynamics factor into a rise in child mortality?<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/summary>\n<p>The majority of the world\u2019s children this century will be born in the regions at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(24)00550-6\/fulltext\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">highest risk of climate breakdown.<\/a> <sup>&nbsp;<\/sup>The risk to these populations is compounded further because of the inequalities they have historically and will continue to face in accessing healthcare and fundamental human rights, such as the right to education.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sub-Saharan Africa, a <a href=\"https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/SP.POP.0014.TO.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">region where 3 to 5 billion children<\/a> are projected to be born, is also representative of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/srccl\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">largest number of people living in poverty<\/a>, are the least resilient countries, where <a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/publications\/i\/item\/9789240003576\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">child malnutrition is already high<\/a> and the capacity to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/srccl\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">increase food supply is strained<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Climate change is already impacting children\u2019s health, and children based in the global south face the highest risks to child mortality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Due to the lack of global investment required in climate change mitigation, high risk regions have the least level of resources to protect increasing numbers of children from deteriorating climate related risks and mortalities. Current United Nations\u2019 projections on infant mortality fail to take these considerations into account.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>Q. What are the solutions to protect children\u2019s health?<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/summary>\n<p>Access to reproductive healthcare is critical for both women and children, healthy women ensure a greater chance of them giving birth to healthy children. Ensuring women have access to healthcare services and information to decide the number and&nbsp;spacing of their pregnancies is their reproductive right. This includes women being able to access&nbsp;quality post-partum recovery, which <a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/news\/item\/30-03-2022-who-urges-quality-care-for-women-and-newborns-in-critical-first-weeks-after-childbirth\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">improves both maternal health and survival rates for newborns and young children.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Neonatal deaths account for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/news-room\/fact-sheets\/detail\/newborn-mortality\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">nearly half (47%) of all child deaths<\/a> under the age of 5, yet receives the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.unicef.org\/media\/77166\/file\/Ending-preventable-newborn-deaths-and-stillbirths-by-2030-universal-health-coverage-in-2020%E2%80%932025.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">lowest investment in care<\/a>. In 2020, 287,000 women died from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/news-room\/fact-sheets\/detail\/maternal-mortality\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">preventable pregnancy-related complications.<\/a> Investment in sexual and reproductive healthcare saves lives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But sexual and reproductive healthcare is under attack, cuts to UK overseas aid, the dismantling of USAID, and the expansion of the Global Gag Rule<sup>22<\/sup> are rolling back essential sexual reproductive health care services, with progress being reversed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>UNFPA warned that&nbsp;between 2025 and 2028 the absence of USAID support will likely result in <a href=\"https:\/\/news.un.org\/en\/story\/2025\/02\/1159746\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">1,200 additional preventable maternal deaths in Afghanistan alone.<\/a> The total impact on women and children\u2019s survival rates on a global scale from the loss of international aid is not yet fully known but it will &nbsp;to be catastrophic, unless urgent action is taken by partners in the third sector.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-popmat-share\"><a class=\"fb-share\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpopulationmatters.org%2Ffragile-futures%2F\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><div><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 448 512\"><path d=\"M400 32H48A48 48 0 0 0 0 80v352a48 48 0 0 0 48 48h137.25V327.69h-63V256h63v-54.64c0-62.15 37-96.48 93.67-96.48 27.14 0 55.52 4.84 55.52 4.84v61h-31.27c-30.81 0-40.42 19.12-40.42 38.73V256h68.78l-11 71.69h-57.78V480H400a48 48 0 0 0 48-48V80a48 48 0 0 0-48-48z\"><\/path><\/svg> Share<\/div><\/a><a class=\"tw-share\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/share?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpopulationmatters.org%2Ffragile-futures%2F&amp;text=Fragile%20Futures\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><div><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\"><path d=\"M459.37 151.716c.325 4.548.325 9.097.325 13.645 0 138.72-105.583 298.558-298.558 298.558-59.452 0-114.68-17.219-161.137-47.106 8.447.974 16.568 1.299 25.34 1.299 49.055 0 94.213-16.568 130.274-44.832-46.132-.975-84.792-31.188-98.112-72.772 6.498.974 12.995 1.624 19.818 1.624 9.421 0 18.843-1.3 27.614-3.573-48.081-9.747-84.143-51.98-84.143-102.985v-1.299c13.969 7.797 30.214 12.67 47.431 13.319-28.264-18.843-46.781-51.005-46.781-87.391 0-19.492 5.197-37.36 14.294-52.954 51.655 63.675 129.3 105.258 216.365 109.807-1.624-7.797-2.599-15.918-2.599-24.04 0-57.828 46.782-104.934 104.934-104.934 30.213 0 57.502 12.67 76.67 33.137 23.715-4.548 46.456-13.32 66.599-25.34-7.798 24.366-24.366 44.833-46.132 57.827 21.117-2.273 41.584-8.122 60.426-16.243-14.292 20.791-32.161 39.308-52.628 54.253z\"><\/path><\/svg> Tweet<\/div><\/a><a class=\"li-share\" href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/shareArticle?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpopulationmatters.org%2Ffragile-futures%2F&amp;text=Fragile%20Futures\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><div><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 448 512\"><path d=\"M416 32H31.9C14.3 32 0 46.5 0 64.3v383.4C0 465.5 14.3 480 31.9 480H416c17.6 0 32-14.5 32-32.3V64.3c0-17.8-14.4-32.3-32-32.3zM135.4 416H69V202.2h66.5V416zm-33.2-243c-21.3 0-38.5-17.3-38.5-38.5S80.9 96 102.2 96c21.2 0 38.5 17.3 38.5 38.5 0 21.3-17.2 38.5-38.5 38.5zm282.1 243h-66.4V312c0-24.8-.5-56.7-34.5-56.7-34.6 0-39.9 27-39.9 54.9V416h-66.4V202.2h63.7v29.2h.9c8.9-16.8 30.6-34.5 62.9-34.5 67.2 0 79.7 44.3 79.7 101.9V416z\"><\/path><\/svg> Post<\/div><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"How underestimating the risks ofpopulation pressure endangers the healthand lives of current and future children KEY MESSAGES be part of the solution \ud83c\udf0d Join us for our Fragile Futures Roundtable&#8230;","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":15799,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-15700","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fragile Futures - Population Matters<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"New report challenges current projections that infant mortality rates will continue to decline. 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