Kenya • Critical Conversations Association • January 2026

Kenya Partnership Visit: Critical Conversations Association

Kenya is standing at a critical juncture. Its population has grown from under 6 million in 1950 to nearly 58 million today, and is projected to reach over 100 million by 2100.

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Population is the core social thing now affecting everything, not only in my community, not only in Kenya, but worldwide.

Sam, 25, Peer Educator

Kenya Today: The Context

While of course for families each birth is treasured, the growing population is driving significant economic, human and environmental challenges. Youth unemployment is estimated at around 38%, and is hitting rural communities hardest.

Kenya is also experiencing an increase in human-wildlife conflict. Despite being one of the most biodiverse nations on Earth, home to around 25,000 species, escalating climate pressures and land degradation coupled with a growing human population is bringing humans and wildlife into closer contact.

This is resulting in increased conflict, to the extent the government has introduced a compensation scheme for people harmed through wildlife encounters.

The land that we have is very small compared to the population… People are constructing new hotels where the animals used to pass.

Moses David, a workshop participant

The Climate-Population-Wildlife Connection

Climate Population Wildlife

Research suggests around 25% of young women in Kenya lack access to family planning with factors like age, location and poverty contributing to this unmet need. Abortion is legal in Kenya, but a combination of restrictive laws and social stigma mean many people cannot openly and effectively access it, should they wish.

As the population grows, challenges for space brings humans into closer contact with wildlife. These challenges are then intensified by climate change, creating an escalating cycle whereby wildlife and humans are brought into ever-closer contact, at a detriment to both.

6,000

wild animals killed by drought in November 2022 alone — including 93 endangered Maasai giraffes

baboon deaths caused by humans defending crops and property

Kenyans killed, and nearly

injured by wildlife between

2017

2020

25,000

species call Kenya home — but escalating climate pressures and land degradation threaten this biodiversity

Schools closed

Children arrive late or leave early to avoid wildlife — some schools forced to shut entirely

Water scarcity

drives wildlife into human settlements, escalating crop raiding and conflict

Kenyan Youth Taking the Lead

In response to these interconnected challenges, Critical Conversations Association is pioneering a different approach. They are a grassroots organisation, led by young Kenyans, using art and performance to start conversations about population growth and what this means for environmental sustainability and community wellbeing.

Their model centres on peer education: young people from local communities facilitate 10-day workshops that integrate culturally sensitive messaging with participatory, engaging activities. These peer educators bring lived experience and deep community knowledge, understanding both the challenges their neighbours face and how to approach sensitive conversations with cultural resonance and respect.

[Other organisations] don’t come to our communities… they don’t really reach the most remote community — they don’t get exposed to towns. Because I am trained and I really understand …we have an impact in our community.

Sam, Peer Educator

Through carefully designed programming, they invite participants to reflect on past patterns and envision how the future could be different — all within the framework of environmental stewardship and informed personal choice.

Before I came to this session, I didn’t have in mind family planning, but I saw it’s very beneficial and changed my mind.

Post-session interview with a Critical Conversations participant

Witnessing Impact on the Ground

We’ve partnered with Critical Conversations Association since 2022. Our support focuses on strengthening their community-led model and building evidence of impact.

Members of our team recently travelled to Southern Kenya to observe the program in action. We participated in an abridged workshop, spoke with participants and community members, and met with a village elder who shared his experience supporting a large family — including having to sell cattle and assets to fund his children’s education.

What We Observed

• Participants in the workshops showed measurable shifts in thinking between pre- and post-workshop discussions, particularly regarding their intended family size.
• Following sessions, young people demonstrated an increased awareness of environmental challenges and how population dynamics influence conservation outcomes.
• Knowledge of contraception varied among participants, indicating opportunities for expanded health education in the programme.
• Although everyone we spoke to identified as Christian, religious identity did not emerge as a determining factor in participants’ family planning considerations.

Support Youth-Led Change

Your support helps grassroots organisations like Critical Conversations Association expand their reach, train new peer educators, and build the evidence base for community-led solutions.

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What’s Next

Critical Conversations Association demonstrates the power of youth-led, culturally grounded approaches to complex challenges. Their work creates space for communities to explore connections between personal decisions, environmental pressures, and collective wellbeing.

We’ll be continuing our partnership with them, with a particular focus on:

Strengthening Measurement & Evidence

We’re working with the team to develop academically robust frameworks for impact evaluation, including support for experimental design and pathways to academic publication.

Deepening Programme Analysis

Together, we’re refining methods to assess how workshops influence participants’ perspectives and decision-making over time.

Expanding Reach

We will support the recruitment and training of new peer educators and facilitate partnerships with other organisations working on related issues.

Our grassroots partners are a reminder that sustainable change requires locally rooted leadership paired with rigorous evaluation. The most effective and choice-based solutions emerge from communities themselves and are the ones that honour both community wisdom and evidence-based practice.

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For the past two years, Population Matters has worked with the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC) to address the underlying causes and impacts of high population growth in Nigeria.

Our Director of Advocacy and Influence, Jameen Kaur, and Director of Research and Learning, Josh Hill, travelled to Abuja to meet our long-time partner CISLAC, community representatives, government officials, and policy makers.

Together, we called on the Nigerian government to take stronger, evidence-based action to manage the impacts of high population growth and confront the underlying root causes- principally unmet need for family planning and lack of access to education, factors that particularly affect young girls and women.

Two years ago, communities were not talking unsustainable project growth.

Abubakar Jimnoh Project Manager, Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre Shares key learnings from their two-year project with Population Matters.

Diverse States, One Nation

Fertility rate by zone

North Central

4.2

FCT-Abuja

3.2

Benue

3.5

Kogi

4.9

Kwara

4.0

Nasarawa

4.3

Niger

4.4

Plateau

4.4

North East

6.1

Adamawa

5.3

Bauchi

6.2

Borno

6.5

Gombe

5.5

Taraba

5.2

Yobe

7.5

North West

5.9

Jigawa

6.9

Kaduna

5.6

Kano

5.8

Katsina

5.7

Kebbi

6.6

Sokoto

5.4

Zamfara

6.3

South East

4.1

Abia

3.7

Anambra

3.7

Ebonyi

4.7

Enugu

3.5

Imo

4.4

South South

3.3

Akwa Ibom

3.3

Bayelsa

3.8

Cross River

3.0

Delta

3.7

Edo

3.3

Rivers

2.9

South West

3.4

Ekiti

3.8

Lagos

3.2

Ogun

4.1

Ondo

3.1

Osun

3.3

Oyo

3.3

National average

4.8

Nigeria is the world’s sixth most populated country, home to 238.7 million people—almost 3% of the global population. Its population is growing rapidly, with projections indicating it will reach 400 million by 2050 , making it the third most populous nation on earth.

Fertility rates vary widely across the six geopolitical zones that make up the country—reflecting social, economic, religious and cultural differences. According to the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey , rural women have an average of 5.6 children, compared with 3.9 in urban areas.

These figures highlight the need for tailored locally informed strategies that recognise Nigeria’s demographic diversity. Solutions must reflect the realities and priorities of each community.

African Nations by Population

Nigeria

223,804,632

Ethiopia

126,527,060

Egypt

112,716,598

DR Congo

102,262,808

Tanzania

67,438,525

South Africa

60,414,495

Kenya

54,027,487

Uganda

49,858,347

Algeria

45,606,480

Sudan

45,004,677

African population estimates sourced from the UN World Population Prospects 2023.

Bintu Ajao, regional coordinator, works to see a positive shift in attitudes toward population management. Based in Lagos, she shared insights for the South-West region—home to Africa’s third-largest city, with more than 17 million people.

Jameen Kaur, Population Matters Director of Advocacy and Influence, captured the differences shaping fertility rates between and within Nigeria’s regions. Nigeria hasn’t conducted a formal census in 19 years, making accurate planning even harder.

Regional coordinator highlights challenges facing adolescent girls who are forced to drop out of the education system due to unintended pregnancies. These can result from gender-based violence, or a lack of access to contraceptives or comprehensive sexuality education.

Population Matters and CISLAC partners meet in Abuja to deepen collaboration on community-led responses to rapid population growth.

A Focus on Girls and Education

Around 15% of girls age 15–19 in Nigeria have been pregnant, and about 44% marry before turning 18 . Early pregnancies often disrupt girls’ education and reinforce cycles of inequality. About 51% of girls complete secondary school , although these numbers are lower in northern regions where the risk of gender-based violence and negative cultural practices act as barriers to education .

15M School-age children not in school

24M Child brides

15% Girls aged 15–19 who have been pregnant

Median Age

Global —

Nigeria —

The median age in Nigeria is 18.1. With such a youthful population comes intense pressure on schools. This is why discussions with the Ministry of Education focused on integrated solutions—combining comprehensive sexuality education with accessible healthcare. This approach enables young people to pursue their education while making informed reproductive choices.

When girls are educated, the whole community thrives. Supporting girls to complete secondary school raises household incomes, builds community resilience , and drives sustainable development . Research from the World Bank shows that improving education for adolescent girls could add US$2.4 trillion to African economies by 2040.

I envision a Nigeria where communities are empowered to drive their own development, where women, girls and youth have equal opportunities, and where population growth is managed through informed decision-making.

Comfort Attah Regional Coordinator, North East

Culture and Communities

Nigerian culture places great value on family. For many, children are a gift—a blessing, and a source of social security and care in old age. As a result, promoting the idea of “smaller families” often clashes with cultural values that link fertility to prosperity. With children seen as blessings, even when a pregnancy is unintended, it’s rarely considered unwanted.

Family planning therefore resonates more when it’s framed as a way of spacing pregnancies rather than limiting or avoiding them. Engaging boys and men is vital to shifting cultural norms. Evidence shows many men are overachieving their desired fertility . Expanding opportunities for everyone to exercise reproductive choice is essential. That requires:

• Access to voluntary family planning

• Comprehensive education on safe contraceptive methods

• Reliable availability through pharmacies, public clinics, and mobile outreach services

Progress is being made. Around 12% of married women in Nigeria use modern contraceptive methods—double the rate in 1990 . Yet gaps remain. Health care expenditure is only 5% of Nigeria’s national budget , leaving major work ahead to ensure modern contraceptives are available to all who want them.

Modern Contraceptive Use

Choose a demographic lens to see how access to modern contraceptives changes across Nigerian households. The table tracks the share of respondents alongside those using or not using modern methods.

View by

Source: Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS).

Demographic detail	Share of respondents (%)	Not using modern methods (%)	Using modern methods (%)

The full dataset remains available below if interactive controls are not available. Each table shows the share of respondents reporting modern contraceptive use by key demographic group.

Age (years) of respondents

Demographic detail	Share of respondents (%)	Not using modern methods (%)	Using modern methods (%)
15–19	4.3Share of respondents	95.8Not using modern methods	4.2Using modern methods
20–24	19.5Share of respondents	91.6Not using modern methods	8.4Using modern methods
25–29	28.1Share of respondents	87.1Not using modern methods	12.9Using modern methods
30–34	22.8Share of respondents	86.3Not using modern methods	13.7Using modern methods
35–39	15.9Share of respondents	85.3Not using modern methods	14.7Using modern methods
40–44	6.8Share of respondents	85.9Not using modern methods	14.1Using modern methods
45–49	2.6Share of respondents	89.0Not using modern methods	11.0Using modern methods

Educational attainment

Demographic detail	Share of respondents (%)	Not using modern methods (%)	Using modern methods (%)
None	46.4Share of respondents	95.8Not using modern methods	4.2Using modern methods
Primary	14.9Share of respondents	87.2Not using modern methods	12.8Using modern methods
Secondary	30.5Share of respondents	80.1Not using modern methods	19.9Using modern methods
Higher	8.2Share of respondents	72.7Not using modern methods	27.3Using modern methods

Partners’ educational attainment

Demographic detail	Share of respondents (%)	Not using modern methods (%)	Using modern methods (%)
None	37.4Share of respondents	96.1Not using modern methods	3.9Using modern methods
Primary	14.1Share of respondents	89.0Not using modern methods	11.0Using modern methods
Secondary	33.8Share of respondents	82.3Not using modern methods	17.7Using modern methods
Higher	14.7Share of respondents	77.2Not using modern methods	22.8Using modern methods

Marital status

Demographic detail	Share of respondents (%)	Not using modern methods (%)	Using modern methods (%)
Never married	4.4Share of respondents	82.9Not using modern methods	17.1Using modern methods
Currently married	92.6Share of respondents	88.0Not using modern methods	12.0Using modern methods
Formerly married	2.9Share of respondents	90.7Not using modern methods	9.3Using modern methods

Wealth index

Demographic detail	Share of respondents (%)	Not using modern methods (%)	Using modern methods (%)
Poorest	22.1Share of respondents	96.3Not using modern methods	3.7Using modern methods
Poorer	22.8Share of respondents	94.1Not using modern methods	5.9Using modern methods
Middle	20.6Share of respondents	88.6Not using modern methods	11.4Using modern methods
Richer	18.3Share of respondents	81.8Not using modern methods	18.2Using modern methods
Richest	16.2Share of respondents	73.4Not using modern methods	26.6Using modern methods

Woman currently working

Demographic detail	Share of respondents (%)	Not using modern methods (%)	Using modern methods (%)
Not working	32.4Share of respondents	91.8Not using modern methods	8.2Using modern methods
Working	67.6Share of respondents	86.0Not using modern methods	14.0Using modern methods

A Human-Centred Approach

Addressing population is not just about numbers. It means ensuring every individual can exercise their reproductive rights, make informed choices, and live a healthy, productive life.

Nigeria’s youthful population means there are around 3.5 million people entering the labour force every year, with a lack of employment driving many people to emigrate in search of better opportunities. To build a sustainable future, it’s necessary to tackle the root causes of why people over achieve their fertility preferences.

This Means

• Investing in people-centred health systems

• Improving Access, Availability, Affordability and Quality (AAAQ) of health care

• Expanding evidence-based education

• Removing structural barriers that perpetuate and entrench poverty

• Partnering with communities to confront and prevent the harms of gender-based violence

The Way Forward

The way forward must be integrated and inclusive. Bringing policymakers, community leaders, and experts into one room is only the beginning of the journey.

By empowering women, educating communities, and ensuring universal access to safe and modern contraception and comprehensive sexual education, Nigeria can transform the vibrant energy of its youth into lasting prosperity.

×

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Addressing Population and Reproductive Health in Nigeria appeared first on Population Matters.

Our CEO Amy Jankiewicz and Campaigns and Media Officer Madeleine Hewitt attended the first Wild Summit in Bristol. With over 1000 people gathered, it provided an insight into pressing discussions happening in the UK environmental movement.  
Madeleine reports from the event. 

NATURe vs economy

The shadow of Rachel Reeves loomed large over the inaugural Wild Summit conference, with every speaker urging the government to invest in nature recovery.  

The government has ambitious targets to meet the commitments made under the Convention on Biological Diversity treaty – to protect 30% of land and 30% of oceans by 2030. Yet so far, their policies have fallen short of expectations.  

Mary Creagh, Under-Secretary of State for Nature of the United Kingdom, set the tone for the conference by stressing that protecting nature is vital for economic growth. 

Without healthy nature, our communities, our economy can’t thrive.

Mary Creagh, Under-Secretary of State for Nature of the United Kingdom

She spoke optimistically about building an economy that embraces nature, in part by expanding the role of private business in nature recovery. 

Yet, as Population Matters explored in our alternative economics project last year, there is a fundamental tension between continued economic growth and environmental sustainability, since growth relies on ever more resource extraction.

There has been wide criticism of the promised idea of ‘green growth’, economic growth that is compatible with environmental sustainability, because of its potential to actually increase material demand.  

addressing our consumption

Celebrity chef and environmental activist, Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall delivered an impactful keynote speech, urging us to protect our rivers. He made a practical case to address the harmful effects of our consumption – starting with the way we eat.  

Most of us have become accustomed to eating cheap chicken and having year-round access to all fruits and vegetables without considering the environmental cost of how that food arrives on our tables.  

Out of season produce is typically imported from over-seas, increasing its carbon footprint. At the same time, the industrialisation of chicken farming has intensified chemical pollution in our rivers, to the extent that only 14% of the UK’s rivers are now in good ecological health.  

For many of us, our distance from the realities of food production leaves us unaware of its devastating impact on nature, polluting rivers and degrading ecosystems. 

Short-term convenience has been allowed to outweigh long-term responsibility.

Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall

The UK is one of the most nature depleted countries in the world. For nature to recover, we need to address our consumption, both through individual choices and government-led policy changes.  

Too Good To Be True 

As Adam Vaughan, environmental editor of The Times pointed out, “Everyone wants to focus on the win-wins, but there’s no discussion about the trade offs nor the difficult problems.” 

Indeed, there was promising discussion of potential solutions such as nature friendly agriculture, reducing land use, and lowering pollution. However, these solutions seem unrealistic when no one acknowledged that the UK’s population is set to keep growing. 

According to the latest ONS mid-2024 projections, the UK population will surpass 70 million people by 2030.  

That growth will drive higher demand for resources. More people will require more food, more water, more power, more housing. Yet the impacts of our growing population were not widely discussed in relation to how this will affect UK nature recovery efforts.  

For some, addressing the impacts of population may seem like a ‘difficult problem’ best left unspoken. But as our strategy makes clear, solutions do exist, and they are overwhelmingly positive, prioritising improving people’s wellbeing and protecting nature. 

Let’s Normalise Talking About Population 

At the Wild Summit, we focused our advocacy on normalising discussions on population, so it becomes part of the conversation on how to protect and restore the UK’s nature.  

We also advocate for the need to address consumption, especially in the UK. Not only is it vital we start talking about these issues, but also that we act. 

Individual actions, such as only eating seasonal produce and setting aside non-meat days each week, can have a real impact. But systematic change is just as vital. That’s why Population Matters will continue researching smart policy options to determine how we can effectively reduce consumption in the UK and across the wider Global North. 

Our strategy brings these threads together to create a world in which our human population lives fairly and sustainably with nature and each other. 

We belong to nature, nature doesn’t belong to us.

Aanchal Mann, Campaigns and Public Affairs Manager, Women Institute 

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Today is World Population Day, a day where we reflect on the collective impact of over 8 billion people on the planet. Our growing population and rising consumption are putting the planet under pressure like never before. With wildlife species already going extinct, nature can’t wait for us to take action. We decided to reach out to our partners to show what they’re doing to protect and restore nature in their communities.

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After the Spike by Dean Spears and Michael Geruso focuses on depopulation, but its arguments are built on shaky ground, stirring up fear, rather than focusing on the facts. What’s more troubling is the authors don’t disclose their funding from Elon Musk, who has frequently made headlines with his concern over low birth rates. Here we’ll break down the flaws in their arguments.  

In After the Spike, Dean Spears and Michael Geruso, economic demographers from the University of Texas at Austin, predict that unless the trend for low birth rates is reversed, the world’s population will peak in the next four to six decades and then fall exponentially. 

However, these arguments do not align with the most widely cited projections of global population put out by the United Nations.  

The substance of Spears and Geruso’s arguments fall more into pronatalist ideology than rationality, perhaps explained by their sources of funding. A Bloomberg investigation revealed that in 2021, Elon Musk donated $10 million to the University of Texas at Austin for the development of the Population Wellbeing Initiative (PWI), which is headed by Dean Spears. Elon Musk has repeatedly spread misinformation about population collapse, claiming it is a “bigger crisis than climate change” – which is false given the global population is set to keep growing and is expected to reach 10 billion before the end of the century. 

Here we will unpack the main arguments of After the Spike and sort out the fact from fiction.  

After the Spike Myth 1 – Depopulation is a crisis 

After the population peaks in about 60 years, it’s not expected to then plateau or stabilize. If birth rates stay the same, it will continue to drop without end, bringing the global population back down to a size not seen for centuries, possibly eventually all the way down to zero.

Dean Spears 

After the Spike argues that due to a trend of low birth rates – narrowly focused on the Global North – that the global population will peak then plummet off a cliff. This misinterprets the most widely cited demographic projections put out by the United Nations in 2024, that the world population is expected to peak at 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, it will then plateau and remain relatively stable hovering above 10 billion through to the end of the century.  

Instead, After the Spike stirs a false panic that we must all start having more children to increase the current birth rate and concerningly fans the flames of “depopulation” conspiracy theories.  

The reality is the current trend of low birth rates primarily in the Global North – as the Global South still has predominantly high birth rates though they are trending downwards – is due to a range of factors. 

Low birth rates are in part a development success story, reflecting more women pursuing higher education and careers, with access to contraception meaning more women have the freedom to choose whether or when they have a child.   

However, as the latest UNFPA 2025 report revealed, many people report being unable to start a family or have as many children as they want primarily due to financial barriers. After the Spike gets it right in proposing governments adopt policies that make parenthood easier and more accessible. However, these policies should be embraced regardless, independent of an agenda to increase birth rates as no one should feel pressured to have children from a state power nor feel they have been priced out of parenthood due to financial constraints.  

We should create a society where everyone is able to freely exercise their reproductive rights and realise their choices about their desired family size. This includes individuals right to make decisions concerning reproduction free of discrimination, coercion and violence. 

After the Spike aims to scare us into the idea that any decline in the size of the global population would be catastrophic. When the real fertility crisis that needs to be urgently addressed is the fact that millions of individuals, especially women and young girls, are unable to exercise their reproductive rights due to persisting socio-economic barriers, gender-based violence, as well as legal restrictions with the rise in anti-choice laws. It’s a global injustice that millions of women and young girls around the world are unable to make free choices about their fertility and their own bodies.  

To address this crisis, Population Matters works with our grassroots partners to remove barriers to people exercising their reproductive rights through Empower to Plan.  

After the Spike Myth 2 – Innovation is driven by numbers of people  

One reason is that other people make the discoveries and have the ideas that improve our lives. Other people are where science and knowledge comes from.

Dean Spears

After the Spike argues that scientific innovation is tied to the size of the human population. Scientific discovery originates from investment in education and research, not the number of people on Earth.  

According to UNESCO, 251 million children and youth remain out of school. With stark disparities between regions, 33% of school-aged children and youth in low-income countries are out of school compared to only 3% in high-income countries.  

Ensuring that everyone has equal access to education, and opportunities to pursue careers in science and engineering, is what will deliver more scientific innovation and discovery.  

After the Spike Myth 3 – Population is not related to environmental problems 

People do destructive activity, but the way we stop that is by stopping the destructive activity with better policy and better enforcement and implementing better technologies. We’ve never solved a problem like that before with less people.

Dean Spears 

After the Spike cites the example of China’s “airpocalypse” when the capital Beijing dealt with infamously bad air pollution categorised by the heavy smog that cloaked most of the city. After 2013, the Chinese government brought in stricter industry regulation that effectively halved the level of air pollution, even whilst China’s population grew by 50 million people. This is cited as proof that environmental problems can be solved even whilst the population continues to grow. Air pollution is only one of many complex environmental crises that the world faces. One of the most serious challenges the world faces is climate change, where there is clear evidence that population growth is a significant driver.  

Globally, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and population growth remained the strongest drivers of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion in the last decade.

 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Sixth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change 

To solve the environmental crises the world is facing, we must acknowledge and address the impacts of our growing global population, alongside reducing our consumption – especially in richer countries. Effective policy regulation can make significant strides to reduce consumption and clean up pollution. In addition, consistent investment in improving access to education and sexual and reproductive healthcare for everyone is one of the positive solutions to achieve a higher quality of life for all people. We advocate for solutions that build interrelationships between population, resources, the environment and development to achieve harmonious balance.  

Final Thoughts 

After the Spike frames the current trend of low birth rates predominantly in the Global North, as our collective moment of doom, with Dean Spears in interviews rather earnestly calling for humanity to avoid its own extinction.  

But the demographic reality is, humanity isn’t going anywhere.  

To make progress governments and the private sector must increase funding for the delivery of sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR). Evidence supports that investing in SRHR is one of the most cost-effective development interventions they can make returning up to US$120 for every US$1 spent. 

Population Matters previously published a report debunking Musk’s claims and highlighting the amount of misinformation he has spread about population on his platform X. You can read the Elon Musk report here. 

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Earth Overshoot Day (July 24th) comes faster than ever.

There is only one Earth – our planet, our shared home. It’s a place of remarkable natural beauty, and complexity. Oceans regulate global temperatures. Forests generate the oxygen we need to breathe. Fertile soil grows the crops that feed us. These interconnected systems sustain all life on Earth, for all species, yet they are increasingly under threat.

As we’ve seen with intensifying heatwaves, hellish wildfires, freak floods and degradation turning productive lands into arid deserts, the ecosystems we depend upon are breaking down. These are not isolated events, they are symptoms of broader ecological collapse, caused by humanity’s outsized impact.  

Our Demand Outstrips Supply  

The Earth is a closed system, which means all the resources we use originate and renew within it. When timber is harvested, for example, then forests can regrow. But it takes time and energy for forests to grow and replace the ones chopped down; this is known as biocapacity and is the rate that the Earth can absorb waste materials and generate new resources. If timber is harvested at the same rate that forests grow, then there is an ecological balance.

However, as is happening all over the world, forests are being slashed and burnt down faster than they’re growing, causing global deforestation that is tipping the scales on climate change and putting us in ecological debt.

We’re not just destroying forests; we’re using up all resources – from blast mining of precious metals to overfishing in our oceans – faster than the Earth can renew them. According to the Global Footprint Network, humanity is using up natural resources 80% faster than the Earth can regenerate, the equivalent of using the resources of 1.8 earths.  

If everyone on the planet lived like the average person in the UK, we’d need the equivalent resources of 2.6 earths. – Global Footprint Network.

We’re Stealing from the Future

The Global Footprint Network also calculates Earth Overshoot Day, the date when humanity will have exhausted nature’s entire annual budget of ecological resources and services.

This year, Earth Overshoot Day lands on July 24^th, which means that for the remaining six months of the year we are living by depleting natural capital.

It may seem hard to understand how we can consume more natural resources than are available on an annual basis, but this level of overuse is possible by depleting natural capital.

To put it another way, we are effectively stealing resources from the future. For example, when mega-trawlers rake up a seabed, hoovering up fish, this destroys the marine habitat and leaves fewer fish able to breed and replace the species, resulting in smaller catches of fish in future. We are choosing short term gains at the expense of long-term sustainability.

The more we deplete natural capital now, the more we risk crossing ecological tipping points, where ecosystems collapse entirely.

Today, human activity is the greatest driver of accelerating biodiversity loss. We are now losing biodiversity up to one thousand times faster than it was disappearing a century ago.

For example, deforestation and over-pumping of aquifers have drained groundwater, leading to more frequent and intense droughts. During severe droughts, trees and plants die off, the ground hardens and compacts like concrete, so when heavy rainfall occurs the ground can’t absorb the water, causing flash floods. When degraded land cannot retain any groundwater, vegetation can’t grow, and the land is unable to regenerate. A vicious cycle of severe often multi-year droughts, followed by flash floods begins.

As recently seen in the Horn of Africa, where between 2020-2023 the region suffered from one of the worst droughts in forty years, followed by a deluge of flash floods in 2024, devastating the area, costing lives, and affecting millions of people. This is just one example of how depleting natural capital can lead to a domino effect of natural disasters as complex ecosystems break down.

Humanity’s impact is driving us into what is now considered the Sixth Mass Extinction. The last was 66 million years ago, triggered by the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs.

Today, human activity is the greatest driver of accelerating biodiversity loss. We are now losing biodiversity up to one thousand times faster than it was disappearing a century ago.

Our needs for food, water, land, energy and more are destroying habitats, polluting our air and water, and driving wildlife and plants to extinction.

Growing Demands

In the last 50 years resource use has tripled, just as the world’s population has grown from 3.6 billion in 1970 to over 8 billion today.

In addition, our own consumption behaviours, that is how we as individuals or groups use and dispose of goods and services, has dramatically increased.

There are more people using more resources than ever before.

According to the United Nations Global Resources Outlook 2024, rising affluence explains 40% of the global increase of material extraction, while population growth contributed to 27%. Despite rhetoric from Silicon Valley, green technology is unlikely to be the miracle solution to reduce the strain of our demand, as the report found technology only mitigated global material extraction by 5%.

The report also predicted a 60% rise in resource use by 2060. We’re set to demand even more from the Earth, when we’re already in ecological debt. Rising resource demand is in part due to the continued growth of the global population – estimated to reach 10.3 billion by the mid-2080’s – as well as increasing consumption, with more people using ever more resources.

It’s vital that everyone is given the adequate resources to live in dignity, however our current economic and social systems steer us toward high-consumption lifestyles, consuming far more resources than we need.

If everyone on the planet lived like the average person in the UK, we’d need the equivalent resources of 2.6 earths (Global Footprint Network).

To solve the pressing environmental challenges the world faces, then we need to repay our ecological debt and reduce our collective demand upon the Earth’s resources. We need to address the impacts of our growing global population and drastically reduce our consumption, especially for individuals living in richer countries, such as the UK.

Positive Solutions

We know that in areas where population is growing the fastest, Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, this is primarily due to millions of individuals, mainly women and girls, unable to exercise their sexual and reproductive health and rights. Persisting social and economic barriers prevent millions of individuals from accessing family planning and education. That’s why Population Matters works with our international partners to remove barriers to reproductive healthcare, including family planning services and information, and to increase access to quality education for all.

At the same time, we also need to drastically reduce our consumption. On an individual level, we know that simple steps like switching to a plant-based diet or cycling to work rather than driving, can reduce one’s ecological footprint. The more of us who work together to reduce our ecological footprint, the greater impact we will have. Together, we can make a more sustainable world, to protect nature and improve people’s lives.

This is a copy of an article that was published in Re-Wild Magazine Winter Edition (2025).

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The post Earth Overshoot Day – We Are in Debt to Our Planet appeared first on Population Matters.

Today is World Population Day, a day where we reflect on the collective impact of over 8 billion people on the planet. Our growing population and rising consumption are putting the planet under pressure like never before. With wildlife species already going extinct, nature can’t wait for us to take action. We decided to reach out to our partners to show what they’re doing to protect and restore nature in their communities.

Dorcas Wakio – mANGROVE RESTORATION 

Dorcas is a passionate climate activist based in Kenya, and one of our Choice Ambassadors.

“We are combining traditional knowledge with modern conservation to promote local ownership, to empower communities, and to build a sustainable future.” 

Dorcas Wakio

She founded the Mazingira Pamoja Initiative which organises community-led mangrove restoration projects.

Did you know? Mangroves are considered a nature-based solution to climate change.

• Mangroves’ biggest strength is their ability to capture and store carbon in the muddy soil they prefer to grow in – mangrove forests are a valuable carbon sink to absorb excess carbon from the atmosphere.

• Mangrove forests also improve local biodiversity, their vast root systems providing habitat for local species, including juvenile sharks, shellfish, and even bees!

Did you know? Mangrove forests also provide employment opportunities for local communities.

• Shellfish gathering, fishing, and beekeeping are some of these opportunities that communities living alongside mangroves can benefit from with a thriving mangrove forest.

Dorcas’ organisation works with communities to replant mangroves – they’ve already planted 20,000 and plan to hit 1,000,000 by 2030- with women and girls playing a leading role in conservation. 

The AWAKENING – youth LEADERS TO PROTECT NATURE

“If we lose our rivers and forests, we lose our future. We are not separate from nature, we are part of it.”

The Awakening

The Awakening are an organisation that strives to empower vulnerable and disenfranchised women in rural areas of Pakistan by building feminist leadership, advances for women’s human rights, advocate and mobilize for gender equality and social justice.

In northern Pakistan, the stunning Swat Valley is facing growing environmental pressure – from deforestation and waste dumping to the effects of climate change- all exacerbated by a growing population.

The Awakening is working with girls, young people, and local communities to protect nature and promote environmental awareness through eco-literacy workshops, school-led river clean-ups, and reforestation campaigns. 

Since 2023, over 200 young people have joined their “Empowering Youth for Climate Justice” clubs; planting trees, leading waste audits and going on clean up drives. Their trainings on menstrual waste and climate resilience have reached 500 girls and vastly reduced plastic usage.

“Nature can’t wait, and neither can we”

The Awakening

Here are some powerful words from their Director, Erfaan Hussein Babak, on the importance of youth engagement in protecting nature:

Turimiquire Foundation – Sustainable agriculture

Turimiquire Foundation are a community-based organisation focused on family planning, rural education and agricultural development with communities in Sucre, Venezuela. 

They follow a Population Health Environment (PHE) model.

Their work has stopped destructive slash and burn practices to clear forest for farmland and instead worked with the local community to promote more sustainable agriculture practices such as agroforestry.

Turimiquire Foundation recognises that the health of the people is just as important as the health of the environment.

With their PHE model they promote environmental education and fulfil unmet need for family planning.

Watch this video to find out more.

KOMB GREEN – tree planting

Komb Green volunteers have participated in the Nairobi River Regeneration, a project aimed to revitalized Nairobi’s rivers into vibrant waterfronts.

The project seeks to improve the quality of life for the residents by reclaiming the river as a shared public good, enhancing biodiversity and providing sustainable water resource.

Komb Green volunteers have removed trash polluting the local rivers.

They’ve also participated in growing seedlings to plant along the banks of Nairobi’s rivers. Tree planting helps to improve soil health and stability, turning river banks into thriving ecosystems that support a wealth of local species.

ghettoh clean

Ghettoh Clean is a Youth Environmental Group based in the informal slum settlement of Kibera on the outskirts of Nairobi, Kenya.

“Ghettoh Clean Youth Group was founded in 2016, right after I finished high school in 2015. I couldn’t manage to go to college or university since my parents couldn’t afford to pay for my fees, I was frustrated since I couldn’t imagine being idle as I knew its consequences having been brought up in the slum. I got passionate about trying to get a solution regarding the bad image of our environment. On a daily basis, I always woke up early in the morning with some of my friends and did some clean up in the small narrow river…we realized that there was some change but still we were not satisfied with some of the residents who still lacked awareness. So I spent two months hustling for some money for an environmental campaign and also for purchasing the polythene bags which were used at that time. I initiated a garbage collection activity after holding the campaign in Kibra.”

– Brian Omariba, Founder of Ghettoh Clean Youth Group 

Their volunteers remove and recycle waste littering the streets and polluting the local rivers. They also organise tree planting days with their volunteers, bringing benefit to the local community and environment.

CELEBRATING OUR PARTNERS

This World Population Day we’re proud to showcase the work of our grassroots partners doing all they can to protect nature with their own resourcefulness and creative ideas.

If you would like to support any of our Empower to Plan partners’ work then you can find links to their websites on this page or on our social media channels.

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The post World Population Day 2025 – WITH OUR PARTNERS, WE ARE PROTECTING NATURE appeared first on Population Matters.

Despite covering 70% of the Earth’s surface, less than 3% of the world’s oceans are protected, leaving vast areas vulnerable to exploitation. This reality is highlighted in Ocean with David Attenborough, released on 8 June for World Oceans Day. Few have had a more remarkable career than Population Matters patron Sir David Attenborough, who for over 70 years has guided us through the wonders of the natural world – and revealed how we are driving its destruction. David Attenborough’s new work shows us, undeniably, that one of the most important ecosystems is under critical threat – from us.

“We are at a crossroads, with humanity draining the life from the ocean.”

Sir David Attenborough, Ocean

We all owe a debt to Sir David Attenborough for his tireless work to defend our planet. His new work makes clear that protecting the world’s oceans is more critical than ever. We must tackle the uncomfortable truths of the cause and effect of human population growth and our consumption of resources, if we are to live sustainably and fairly with nature.

To explore these challenges further, we spoke to Daniel Cáceres Bartra, a Peruvian marine biologist and Latin America Representative for the Sustainable Ocean Alliance. Daniel is attending the UN Ocean Conference in Nice, France.

According to Daniel, the rapid expansion of ocean industries such as industrial fishing, global shipping and the emerging threat of deep-sea mining is unfolding in plain sight. He noted that this expansion continues despite a widespread lack of public awareness or political urgency: “It’s happening right in front of us, but it’s not always visible or talked about. There is a denial and an invisibility of the threat.”

A Lifetime of Change: Population Growth and Nature’s Decline 

When Sir David was born in 1926, the global population stood at 2 billion. In the intervening 99 years, it has more than quadrupled to over 8 billion people today. Since 1970, wildlife species have declined by 73%, principally because wildlife habitat has been broken up by urbanisation and the intensification of agriculture. This has put thousands of species on the brink of extinction.  

Daniel is clear that the relationship between population growth and ocean degradation is direct, “More people, means more consumption, each human requires a basic protein and nutritional demand. That translates into more ships, more coastal cities and more demand for seafood. All of it puts heavy pressure on marine ecosystems.” 

We’ve already seen wildlife species disappear on land; this could be mirrored in the oceans if demand driven by our growing population continues. Overfishing, mineral extraction and international shipping pose existential threats to marine ecosystems.

The Hidden Cost of Overfishing 

Ocean with David Attenborough places a spotlight on the destruction caused by mega-trawlers bulldozing the seabed. Many viewers are likely to be deeply concerned by the loss of fish, corals and kelp forests destroyed by these mega-trawlers. But before placing the blame solely on the fishing industry, they should also recognise that these wasteful practices arise from the demands of feeding the growing global population.  

According to The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, aquatic foods currently provide 15% of all animal proteins consumed. If the global population exceeds 10 billion by the 2080s, fish demand will rise dramatically, the UN predicts. The fishing industry must change to stop exploiting oceans and harming marine life and communities in lower-income countries. We must reduce demand for fish by keeping population and consumption within sustainable limits.

Oceans Under Pressure

As Sir David’s film makes clear, we have only just begun to understand the diversity of life that exists in our oceans. But the impacts of humanity both on land and at sea due to our overconsumption of resources, particularly in high-income countries, are plundering and poisoning our oceans and the marine species that oceans are home to.  

Scientists warn that current calls for deep-sea mining to meet future resource needs would be catastrophic for marine ecosystems. On this subject, Daniel didn’t mince words. He likened the practice to “bulldozing an ancient forest… but underwater.” He went further, explaining: “Unique habitats that took thousands of years to form are destroyed, and we might lose species or microbes that could hold keys to climate solutions or even medicine.”   

Marine shipping routes are making oceans noisier and more polluted. A rise in whale strandings shows how shipping and military sonar disrupt their sonar navigation. In the same way it’s hard for two humans to hear one another next to a busy road; noise generated by ships can mask sounds that marine mammals use to communicate, navigate, find mates and hunt for food.  

This has led to marine species, such as the endangered southern resident orca, struggling to hunt for the few fish left for them. Daniel calls for: “clear regulations, better noise-reducing technology and more public education to make this invisible threat visible.” 

Rubbish Island and Microplastics: Humanity’s unwanted footprint

The Great Pacific Garbage Patch shows our collective impact – a plastic island estimated to be three times France’s size. This rubbish island keeps growing, with over 11 million tonnes of plastic entering the ocean every year.

We now know the inert properties of plastic mean it doesn’t degrade, but breaks up into smaller and smaller pieces. Microplastics now contaminate our water and soil, and scientists find them in the stomachs of birds, fish and humans. Sir David’s Blue Planet II exposed plastic pollution to the world and inspired stronger, more coordinated action on single-use plastics.

Protecting the oceans starts with us

We hope Ocean with David Attenborough can spark a conversation about the human population’s impact on the world’s oceans. The film shows the ocean can recover faster than we expect – but only with urgent, coordinated global action. We must reduce both population and consumption to bring human impact within sustainable limits and protect marine ecosystems. Life began in the ocean. We must act now to preserve its rich biodiversity before it’s too late.

“The ocean needs space, time, and less pressure. Where strong protections exist, marine life has bounced back powerfully.” 

Daniel Cáceres Bartra

We’ll continue to follow Daniel’s work at the UN Ocean Conference in Nice. He kindly agreed to write a follow-up blog exploring whether attendees are meaningfully addressing population growth. Stay tuned for his reflections and insight from inside the negotiations. 

If Ocean moved you like it moved us, take action today. Support our Nature Can’t Wait appeal, and right now, your donation will go twice as far. Thanks to match funding, every pound you give will be doubled at no extra cost to you. Together, we can take action to protect the natural world before it’s too late. 

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According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), more than 47,000 species are currently threatened with extinction. This number encompasses endangered species many of us have been in awe of since childhood – tigers, elephants and great apes – and many lesser-known but equally vital birds, insects and amphibians. In 2023, our Vanishing Icons report highlighted the perilous state of some of the world’s most iconic species, animals that inspire and serve as vital indicators of the planet’s health. Two years on, the picture remains sadly unchanged.

The nature crisis has only intensified in recent years, driven by habitat destruction and the accelerated impacts of climate change. The underlying causes are unchanged: unsustainable human consumption and continued human population growth.

This update revisits four of the species featured in the 2023 Vanishing Icons report: tigers, elephants, mountain lions and chimpanzees. What does their fate in 2025 reveal about our planet?

Tigers: Fragile recovery for endangered icon

Wild tiger numbers plummeted to fewer than 3,200 in the early 2010s. Since then, they’ve shown a modest recovery thanks to concerted conservation efforts, particularly in India, Nepal and Bhutan. As of 2024, their global population stands at around 4,500, a 40% increase over the past decade, according to the IUCN.

However, this progress is fragile. Habitat loss from expanding human settlements and poaching to supply the illegal wildlife trade continue to threaten these apex predators. In the Indian Sundarbans mangrove forests, home to the endangered Bengal tiger, are also under siege from climate change. Rising sea levels are further degrading vital habitat, leaving the Bengal tiger with shrinking territory to hunt and breed. 

African Elephants: Fragmented habitats and rising threats 

In 2021, the IUCN formally recognised the African savanna elephant and the African forest elephant as two distinct species. Anti-poaching campaigns and tighter enforcement have been successful in reducing the ivory trade. But habitat loss and fragmentation have emerged as more insidious threats, as wild spaces are increasingly broken up by roads, farms and development, isolating elephant populations.

Forest elephant numbers have declined by more than 86% over the last 31 years. Savanna elephant numbers have fallen by 60% in 50 years. Combined, fewer than 415,000 elephants now remain in the wild across Africa. 

Urbanisation, infrastructure development and agricultural expansion continue to shrink the space elephants need to roam and find food. In many global areas, human-elephant conflict is on the rise due to local communities encroaching into existing elephant ranges.  

In India alone, more than 500 people and 100 elephants die annually in human-wildlife conflicts, a stark indicator of the pressures on shared landscapes.

Mountain Lions: A threatened Icon

Also known as cougars or pumas, mountain lions are widely distributed across the Americas. But despite their wide range, they face increasing threats in landscapes dominated by human activity. In the United States, vehicle collisions are now a leading cause of death for mountain lions. Expanding road networks divide their habitats, isolating them and limiting their ability to roam.  

In Southern California, some groups of mountain lions are so cut off that they are suffering from inbreeding and a lack of genetic diversity, which further compounds the pressures they face.

But a landmark project offers hope. The Wallis Annenberg Wildlife Crossing, now under construction in Southern California, is designed to help mountain lions move safely across major roads. It’s a vital step towards humans coexisting with wildlife in a rapidly urbanising world.  

Chimpanzees: A shared future under threat 

Our closest relatives are vanishing before our eyes. In just a few decades, chimpanzee numbers have declined rapidly, with fewer than 250,000 remaining in the wild. Bonobos, gorillas and orangutans face even steeper declines. 

The causes are well-known. The bushmeat trade, disease transmission from humans, logging and the relentless expansion of agriculture are all placing chimpanzees under increasing pressure. 

Recent years have also seen a disturbing rise in zoonotic spillovers in ape populations, when diseases jump from animals to humans. These events highlight both the threats to biodiversity and human health, underscoring the deep connections between species survival and our wellbeing.

A 2024 study published in Frontiers in Public Health found that Ebola virus outbreaks are more likely to occur near ecological boundaries, areas where the geographic ranges of multiple species overlap and where human-altered landscapes meet wild habitats. This indicates that these transitional zones heighten the risk of disease being passed from wildlife to humans.

The Common Threat to Nature: Human pressure 

Vanishing Icons species inhabit diverse ecosystems – from rainforests and savannas to mountain ranges – but they share a common threat: human encroachment. The global human population has now passed 8.2 billion. With it comes increased demand for land, food, water and energy, putting immense pressure on the natural world. As habitat is cleared for agriculture and our cities expand, wildlife loses the space it needs to survive. 

We must recognise the inextricable link between population dynamics and biodiversity. The more we consume, the less land and resources remain for wildlife and ecosystems that we as humans also depend on for our survival.

How can we turn the tide for endangered species and our planet’s health

• Community-led conservation: Support approaches that balance human need with biodiversity protection – such as Population Health Environment (PHE) programmes.  
• Protect and restore habitats: Scale up ecosystem restoration, create wildlife corridors and strengthen enforcement of anti-poaching laws. 
• Adopt strategies to address the impact of our consumption: From meat and palm oil to fast fashion and disposable electronics, we all have a part to play in reducing our  unsustainable consumption -especially in high-income countries such as the UK. 
• Champion global agreements: Back international agreements like the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, and hold governments to their commitments to end and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030. 

It is all our responsibility to protect the natural world – not only for endangered species, but for the future of us all.  

You can help today by supporting our matched-funding appeal, Nature Can’t Wait – double your impact, not your footprint. 

And stay tuned for more: we’ll be celebrating World Oceans Day by spotlighting the work of our patron, Sir David Attenborough. Later this month, we’ll be following Oceans Campaigner and friend of Population Matters, Daniel Cáceres Bartra, as he reports from the UN Ocean Conference in Nice, France. 

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This week, Population Matters is in New York, bringing our new Fragile Futures report to the 58th Session of the Commission on Population and Development (CPD58). The evidence is clear: child deaths could exceed United Nations (UN) projections this century. Governments at the meeting have acknowledged that conflict and climate change are straining health systems — and that greater investment is urgently needed.

“Let there be no doubt that we should have deep concern about what’s happening in the future, particularly for children.”  

Fragile Futures author, Professor Peter Le Souef

The Fragile Futures report makes one thing crystal clear: as climate change accelerates and population patterns shift, the risks to children’s lives are likely to grow, which is something the UN does not account for in their current projections. Population Matters has a small delegation in New York this week to present the findings of the report and engage decision makers, including two of the report’s authors,  Professor Peter Le Souef, a Paediatrician, and Dr Melinda Judge. 

These issues were echoed in the joint CPD58 statement, delivered by Sierra Leone on the first day on behalf of multiple countries, including the UK. It emphasised the urgent need for investment to achieve international health goals, and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) stated that:  

“…allocating an additional $79 billion by 2030 to expand maternal health and family planning services could yield $660 billion in economic benefits by 2050—preventing 400 million unplanned pregnancies.” 

Governments also warned that “conflicts and climate change are straining health systems.” Population Matters has also called for greater investment and political action on these issues.

What the Climate Crisis Means for Children’s Health 

On 8 April, we presented the Fragile Future findings. Representatives attended from the UNFPA, the National Statistical Office of Malawi, the Mexican National Citizen Council on Population, as well as delegates from the Asian-Pacific Resource & Research Centre for Women (ARROW) and the Ghanaian organisation Norsaac. 

We found an engaged audience, eager to discuss population and take forward the findings of the report. Dr Yasmeen Sabeeh Qazi, CEO of QZ Catalyst – an organisation working on family planning and health in Pakistan, commented:  

“Population does matter. Let’s start talking about it.”  

Dr Joan Castro, Executive Vice President of PATH Foundation Philippines, and Wendo Sahar, Executive Director of Dandelion Africa in Kenya, also shared their evidence in powerful video contributions, offering compelling insights from their work with local communities. 

“Despite their minimum contribution to climate change, newborns and children bear 88% of the disease burden linked to climate change.”  

Wendo Sahar

Our Chief Research and Operations Officer, Josh Hill, observed: “The intersection of population and health outcomes seemed to be readily accepted and understood and there was a real momentum to continue the discussion in various forums.”  

Population Matters was encouraged that representatives from UNFPA attended the discussion, and now working to connect with their data team to help improve future UN’s projections.

The need for funding is ever critical 

One uncomfortable truth loomed over every conversation at CPD58 — even when it went unspoken. No matter how compelling the case or how strong the calls for action, progress on child health will stall without funding. And right now, funding is disappearing fast. 

The opening session at CPD58 failed to acknowledge the unprecedented global shifts in aid cuts – that USAID, one of the largest global funders of maternal and health services, had recently slashed its aid budget by 83%. Then, other governments, including the UK and in Europe, swiftly took similar steps.

However, Margaret Edison, Director of Population Management and Development at Nigeria’s National Population Commission—and a familiar face to Population Matters from our Nigerian Population Conversation—broke the silence.

Speaking during a Population Council side event, she addressed the reality head-on. “We need to resist depending on donors, start generating our own funding. Whoever owns funding has the right to withdraw it,” she said. She also highlighted the urgent need for her own government to show leadership: “Nigeria has the money,” she said, “but it needs to be mobilised better.” 

Edison continued: “We need to get better at communicating the end results – [without family planning] women are dying, children’s health is worse.” Her words were a powerful reminder that the solutions we’re advocating for need both political will and proper investment. 

Putting words into action

CPD58 has shown encouraging signs that the link between climate change, population dynamics and child health is being taken more seriously. In the weeks and months to come, Population Matters, along with its partners, will be ensuring that government pledges and statements are delivered into practical action.  

Watch the full discussion on this page for first-hand insight into the challenges — and the growing momentum — to deliver better health outcomes for children and our planet. Please sign up for our email updates here and be part of our movement as we push for change.   

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New evidence from Population Matters’ Fragile Futures report reveals a stark truth: child mortality this century will be higher than current projections suggest. This article examines why the current United Nations’ projections are wrong, how it’s impacting the lives of children and what must urgently be done.

“The health and wellbeing of children should be one of society’s highest priorities, not just for children today, but also for children of the future.”

Fragile Futures report

For decades, the United Nations’ projections have been considered the gold standard for tracking global health trends such as infant and under-five mortality rates.*  

Charities, policymakers and governments rely on these figures to prioritise resources that shape and deliver health policies for children. Data accuracy is essential to ensure cost-effective solutions reach communities that need them most, particularly in regions that are at high risk of infant mortality.

The United Nations predicts that under-five mortality rates will keep falling throughout this century. But those projections rely on past trends. The climate and environment are in rapid decline – our planet is getting hotter, and air pollution is rising. The United Nations prediction model fails to take this into account.

Why the United Nations’ Projections Are Flawed 

The Fragile Futures report reveals a worrying gap in the United Nations’ infant mortality projections: they overlook two major threats to children’s health today. 

1. The Increasing Impacts of Climate Change: The United Nations’ modelling does not include the rising risks posed by extreme heat, air pollution, droughts, and other accelerating climate-driven crises. These environmental changes threaten decades of progress and leave millions of children vulnerable.  

2. Population Dynamics: The projections fail to account for the reality of global demographics. This century, most children will be born in the most climate-vulnerable regions, principally Sub-Saharan Africa and South & Central Asia. These regions also have the fewest resources to combat climate-related health threats.  

Together, these blind spots paint an alarmingly incomplete picture. If we continue on this path—relying on outdated assumptions—we risk failing millions of children and their families. 

“Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security, and children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. Given this knowledge, failure to take prompt, substantive action would be an act of injustice to all children.” 

Global Climate Change and Children’s Health – American Academy of Pediatrics 

The Climate Crisis is a Child Health Crisis 

The impacts of climate change are being felt all over the world. Previously farmable land is turning into arid, inhospitable terrain, leading to crop losses and water shortages. Droughts, one of the deadliest natural disasters, are becoming commonplace. Undernourishment continues to rise worldwide, affecting an estimated 828 million people (2022). 

What’s less well known is that extreme temperatures are already linked to a 60% increased risk of premature births, a major driver of infant mortality. As Associate Professor at Africa International University Adelaide Lusambili said last year:  

“Mothers and newborns deserve protection – climate solutions must include their voices.” 

The United Nations’ child-mortality projections optimistically assume that past progress will continue. But if catastrophic flooding in Spain, multi-year droughts in the Horn of Africa, and rampant Californian wildfires in January have taught us anything, it’s that climate change is reshaping the entire world and putting children’s lives at risk. 

Infant Mortality Rates Are Already Climbing

Contrary to official predictions, recent data shows infant mortality is already increasing in both high- and low-income countries, including the United States, France, India, Madagascar, Cambodia, Nepal and the Philippines.

The Fragile Futures report highlights a stark reality: as the impacts of climate change intensify, the number of vulnerable children affected will rise dramatically. 

As the report warns, “The number of children adversely affected by climate change will increase not only because there will be more children, but because of the increasing number of vulnerable children.” 

Thanks to decades of progress, more children than ever are surviving their first years. But climate change threatens to undo those hard-won gains. 

A Wake-Up Call

This week, the Population Matters team will be bringing this urgent evidence to the 58th Conference on Population and Development (CPD58) in New York. There, we will present our data, challenge current United Nations’ projections and call for immediate action -bringing together global experts, advocates and decision-makers to drive this vital conversation forward. 

The world cannot afford to base life-saving policies on flawed information. Protecting children’s health starts with better data and stronger investment in health systems and health services needed by newborns, infants, children and women –  sexual and reproductive healthcare – for the sake of millions of women and children worldwide. 

Join us online this Tuesday, 8 April, for our Fragile Futures Roundtable — a vital conversation about shaping policies that protect children’s health in a changing world.

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* The under-five mortality rate refers to the probability a newborn would die before reaching five years of age, expressed per 1,000 live births. Infant mortality is a related term that refers to the probability a newborn would die before reaching their first birthday. 

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